"""Why does slower capital lower cognitive unemployment? Decompose the January 2030 cognitive wage into the common (potential) wage and the sticky cognitive discount (Eq. 30, p. 19), and report the cumulative layoffs, for the extreme scenario at the paper's setting and two adjusted settings. Usage: python -I mechanism_check.py PKG_DIR """ import math import sys from dataclasses import replace sys.path.insert(0, sys.argv[1]) from econ_scenarios import EXTREME, Calibration, simulate # noqa: E402 print(f"{'eps':>4} {'half-life':>9} {'common wage':>11} {'discount':>9} {'paid w_C':>9} " f"{'layoffs to 2030':>15} {'u_C':>6}") for eps, hl in ((3.0, 0.0), (3.0, 12.0), (6.0, 0.0), (6.0, 24.0)): sim = simulate(EXTREME, replace(Calibration(), eps=eps), capital_half_life=hl) s = sim.series k = sim.index(2030.0) layoffs = float(sum(s["D_C"][: k + 1])) u_c = 100 * s["U_C"][k] / (s["U_C"][k] + s["ell_C"][k]) print(f"{eps:4.0f} {hl:9.0f} {100 * math.expm1(s['pot_lnW'][k]):11.2f} {100 * s['wage_gap'][k]:9.2f} " f"{100 * math.expm1(s['lnW_C'][k]):9.2f} {100 * layoffs:15.2f} {u_c:6.2f}") print("common wage and paid w_C: percent above the no-AI path; discount: 100 x ln(w_C / w);") print("layoffs: cumulative D_C, percent of the labor force.")