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Discussion of prioritized papers

Each title opens a full page discussing that research: why it matters, the reasoning behind its ratings, human feedback, and evidence of public attention and use. You can contribute evidence and comments there. Separate links take you to the original papers.

Current selection: the union of (a) the five highest human–AI synthesis scores among papers with at least one human rating and (b) a tracked shortlist. Top 15 AI-related and top 10 other papers by default dashboard priority, frozen 2026-09-30; METR added for scope discussion. GovAI release delays and AGI Race added explicitly on 2026-10-08 for human-input discussion coverage. Many shortlisted papers have no human ratings yet; their pages say so. This is an exploratory queue. The team has not made final prioritization decisions for these papers. Pages use the integrated dashboard and feedback data. Generated 2026-10-23T13:30:42+00:00.

Top AI-related papers

1

What If Automating AI R&D Triggers an Intelligence Explosion?

Alan Chan, Christoph Winter, Andrew Barto, Jakub Pachocki, Geoffrey Hinton, Eric Horvitz, Yoshua Bengio, Dawn Song, Jack Clark, Hilary Greaves, Anton Korinek, Sam Manning, et al.

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

Synthesis 66 · AI 78 (Opus-shifted) · Human 61 (n=4)

Two verified media reports; policy use not established

2

Canaries in the Gold Mine: Early Productivity Gains from Artificial Intelligence Creating Organization Capital

Tania Babina, Alex X. He, Renhao Jiang

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

AI 79 (Opus-shifted) · No human ratings yet

Think-tank use of the headline result; no extended scrutiny found

3

Adopting Fast and Slow: Cross-Country Evidence on Business Adoption of Artificial Intelligence

Elwyn Davies, David Francis, Filip Jolevski, Gaurav Nayyar, Katherine Stapleton, Shu Yu

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

AI 80 (Opus-shifted) · No human ratings yet

World Bank flagship-report background research; no independent use found

4

The Economics of Recursive Self-Improvement

Tom Cunningham, Lukas Althoff, Basil Halperin, Brian Jabarian, Andrew Koh, Arjun Ramani, Phil Trammell, Parker Whitfill, Cheryl Wu

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

Synthesis 74 · AI 85 (Opus-shifted) · Human 68 (n=4)

Early attention, largely author-network; no independent scrutiny found

5

Measuring Mid-2025 LLM-Assistance on Novice Performance in Biology

Shen Zhou Hong, Alex Kleinman, Alyssa Mathiowetz

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

Synthesis 83 · AI 90 (Opus-shifted) · Human 81 (n=3)

Substantial attention in AI-bio and forecasting communities; decision use not yet established

6

Disruption without dividend? How the digital divide and task differences split GenAI's global impact

Pawel Gmyrek, Mariana Viollaz, Hernan Winkler

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

Synthesis 66 · AI 82 (Opus-shifted) · Human 50 (n=1)

Institutionally published; reproducibility package available; little independent discussion found

7

What Work Does Generative AI Do?

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, David J. Deming

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

AI 76 (Opus-shifted) · No human ratings yet

Policy-audience dissemination; no independent critique found

8

Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI

Anton Korinek, Charles I. Jones, Szymon Sacher, Tess Cotter, Peter McCrory

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

Synthesis 83 · AI 94 (Opus-shifted) · Human 79 (n=4)

Economist and press attention; independent reproduction of the numbers; scenario assumptions not yet evaluated

9

Diversion and resale: estimating compute smuggling to China

Isabel Juniewicz

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

Synthesis 68 · AI 81 (Opus-shifted) · Human 60 (n=3)

Named in policy analysis of chip-tracking legislation; limited direct citation; no independent review

10

Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI

Ezra Karger, Otto Kuusela, Jason Abaluck

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

Synthesis 82 · AI 78 (Opus-shifted) · Human 84 (n=4)

Reused in Yale Budget Lab fiscal and tax modeling; used in commentary aimed at the Fed; no independent critique found

11

AI Adoption in Developing Countries: Lessons from the Adoption of other Advanced Digital Technologies

Xavier Cirera, Diego Comin, Marcio Cruz, Kyungmin Lee

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

Synthesis 79 · AI 85 (Opus-shifted) · Human 70 (n=2)

World Bank report input; independent uptake unclear

12

Risk Design: AI and Prediction Beyond Screening in Insurance Markets

Alex Chan

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

AI 52 (Opus-shifted) · No human ratings yet

Limited attention found; quick check

13

Still Waters, Rapid Currents: Early Labor Market Transformation under Generative AI

Anders Humlum, Emilie Vestergaard

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

Synthesis 71 · AI 88 (Opus-shifted) · Human 60 (n=2)

Widely circulated research; documented decision use not confirmed; quick check

14

Public Finance in the Age of AI: A Primer

Anton Korinek, Lee M. Lockwood

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

AI 76 (Opus-shifted) · No human ratings yet

Expert-conference engagement; no documented policy use

15

Generative AI and the Global Redistribution of Expertise

Pawel Gmyrek, Hector Segura, Hernan Winkler, Shu Yu

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

AI 80 (Opus-shifted) · No human ratings yet

World Bank flagship-report background research; quick check

16

Delays to Frontier AI in the EU and UK

John Lidiard, Oleksandra Vereschak, Tom Gibbs, Markus Anderljung

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

Synthesis 61 · AI 73 · Human 55 (n=4)

Existing reviewed brief evidence; human commissioning judgment pending

17

The AGI Race and Existential Risk

Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, Wioletta Dziuda, Mattias Polborn

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

Synthesis 73 · AI 79 · Human 71 (n=4)

Existing reviewed brief evidence; human commissioning judgment pending

Top other papers

1

Better Together? The Impact of Cash Transfers and Couples' Financial Planning on Household Dynamics and Economic Outcomes

Sarika Gupta, Jessica Leight, Daniel W. Maggio

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

Synthesis 92 · AI 96 (Opus-shifted) · Human 90 (n=2)

Institutionally connected; public uptake not yet established

2

Female Micro-Entrepreneurship and Child Development

Andrew Foster, Moritz Poll, Hyun Soo Suh

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

Synthesis 92 · AI 94 (Opus-shifted) · Human 90 (n=1)

Researcher and funder-network dissemination; decision use not yet established

3

Estimating the Economic Effects of Federally Funded R&D

Sheila Campbell, Jaeger Nelson, Eli A. Schrag

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

AI 77 (Opus-shifted) · No human ratings yet

Used in the authors' agency; some independent commentary

4

When Incentives Aren't Enough: Evidence on Inattention and Imperfect Memory from HIV Medication Adherence

Hang Yu, Jared Stolove, Dean Yang

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

Synthesis 86 · AI 84 (Opus-shifted) · Human 90 (n=1)

Limited public attention found

5

Reducing Prescription Errors Through Information Intervention: A Field Experiment in Healthcare Operations

Xiaodan Shao, Vivek Choudhary, Arnab Majumdar

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

AI 79 (Opus-shifted) · No human ratings yet

Very early; no public attention found; quick check

6

Artificial Intelligence Interventions to Support Frontline Healthcare Workers in Low-Resource Settings: A Review

Anja Sautmann, Jonas Weinert

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

Synthesis 86 · AI 85 (Opus-shifted) · Human 90 (n=1)

Used as World Bank flagship-report background research

7

Organizational Incentives and the Returns to Technology Adoption

Achyuta Adhvaryu, Smit Gade, Piyush Gandhi

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

AI 85 (Opus-shifted) · No human ratings yet

Limited public attention found; quick check

8

Climate Change, Deforestation, and the Expansion of the Global Agricultural Frontier

Allan Hsiao, Jacob Moscona, Benjamin A. Olken

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

AI 76 (Opus-shifted) · No human ratings yet

Academic dissemination only; quick check

9

Compulsory Education, Life Trajectories, and Intergenerational Mobility: Evidence from Mexico's 1993 Schooling Reform

de la Fuente Stevens, Diego

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

AI 65 (Opus-shifted) · No human ratings yet

Academic dissemination only; quick check

10

Targeting, Personalization, and Engagement in an Agricultural Advisory Service

Susan Athey, Shawn Cole, Shanjukta Nath

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

AI 73 (Opus-shifted) · No human ratings yet

Academic and practitioner context; quick check

Added for scope discussion

1

Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Software Tasks

Thomas Kwa, Ben West, Joel Becker, Amy Deng, Katharyn Garcia, Max Hasin, Sami Jawhar, Megan Kinniment, Nate Rush, Sydney Von Arx, Ryan Bloom, Thomas Broadley, Haoxing Du, Brian Goodrich, Nikola Jurkovic, Luke Harold Miles, Seraphina Nix, Tao Lin, Chris Painter, Neev Parikh, David Rein, Lucas Jun Koba Sato, Hjalmar Wijk, Daniel M. Ziegler, Elizabeth Barnes, Lawrence Chan

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

Synthesis 48 · AI 25 (Opus-shifted) · Human 60 (n=3)

Heavy public attention and existing public critique

Human-rated papers

1

Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

Maxim Massenkoff, Peter McCrory

Full page/details: discussion and evidence · Read the paper (original source)

Why it is being considered, reasoning behind the ratings, human feedback, and public attention and use. Add your own evidence or comments.

Synthesis 85 · AI 83 · Human 90 (n=1)

Public-attention research pending