AI analysis requested by The Unjournal
Structural sensitivity: would other reasonable model choices change the results?
The paper builds its model from a series of choices, each defensible and each drawn from a literature: a task-based production structure, a capital-supply schedule, search and matching, a wage rule. Would an equally reasonable set of choices have led to very different results? This page lists the main choice points with alternatives, for evaluators to amend, and reports one pilot change.
In brief
- What earlier work tested. The isitcredible review varied the paper’s parameters jointly and swapped a few smaller pieces of structure: the routing of labor-force exits, within-task substitution, and how the extra capital is paid for. It did not swap the main building blocks: the capital-supply rule, the wage rule, the matching function, or tasks within occupations.
- The menu. 11 choice points, each with the paper’s choice and page, alternatives, the claims it could change, and what has been tested. Comments from evaluators will guide which to run next; the form is private.
- The pilot. Capital reaches the paper’s supply schedule gradually rather than instantly. In the extreme scenario, the long-run elasticity of about 6 with a two-year half-life gives nearly the paper’s 2030 GDP (32.9 against 32.4 percent) but a different split: the cognitive wage is −17.0 percent against the paper’s −11.5, and cognitive unemployment 15.7 against 17.9 percent.
- Why it matters. The two choices interact. Because the paper’s wage rule makes the cognitive wage sticky relative to the economy-wide wage, slower capital moves the cost from unemployment into lower pay. A different wage rule would likely move it the other way. Choices should be varied together, not one at a time.
Pilot: how fast capital reaches the paper’s schedule
The change. In the paper, the capital stock is always on its supply schedule. In the pilot, each month the stock closes a fixed fraction of its gap to the schedule; the half-life is the time to close half the gap. A half-life of zero is the paper. The paper itself says compute is “built in a year or two” (p. 26), so half-lives of 6–12 months are close to its own description; 24 and 48 months stand for slower physical limits.
Two long-run elasticities. The paper sets ε = 3, half the value of about 6 implied by Moll, Rachel and Restrepo (p. 9, footnote), with the short horizon in mind. Adding a lag to ε = 3 may count that delay twice; the cleaner comparison is ε = 6 reached with a lag. Both are shown. Everything else stays at the paper’s values.
Checks. With the half-life at zero, every monthly series of the 14 printed runs (Tables 3, 5 and 6) equals the unmodified Econ-ARK code bit for bit, and Econ-ARK’s validator finds all 226 published numbers it checks. With an infinite half-life, the stock stays on its no-AI path, and the results equal the paper’s rule at ε = 0 to within 10⁻¹⁵. At zero half-life, the ε = 6 column reproduces the paper’s Table 5.
Extreme scenario, January 2030
Each point is one model run; hover over a point for its value. Half-lives are evenly spaced on the axis, not to scale, and each panel has its own vertical scale. The first blue point is the paper’s Table 3; the first orange point is its Table 5 at ε = 6.
Table view: extreme scenario
| January 2030 | ε 3 (paper) | ε 6 (long-run, Moll et al.) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Instant (paper) | 6 months | 12 months | 24 months | 48 months | Instant (paper) | 6 months | 12 months | 24 months | 48 months | |
| GDP, % above no-AI path | 32.4 | 30.8 | 28.7 | 25.3 | 20.6 | 37.2 | 36.4 | 35.1 | 32.9 | 29.4 |
| GDP growth, % a year | 15.4 | 14.8 | 14.2 | 13.1 | 11.4 | 17.5 | 17.1 | 16.7 | 16.0 | 15.1 |
| Labor share, % | 45.2 | 44.3 | 43.6 | 42.4 | 40.8 | 46.9 | 46.3 | 45.8 | 45.0 | 43.8 |
| Cognitive unemployment, % | 17.9 | 15.8 | 15.4 | 15.1 | 14.8 | 18.6 | 16.7 | 16.1 | 15.7 | 15.4 |
| Unemployment, all workers, % | 11.9 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 12.2 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 10.5 |
| Cognitive wage, % vs no-AI | −11.5 | −19.2 | −22.8 | −27.4 | −33.2 | −3.3 | −9.9 | −13.0 | −17.0 | −21.9 |
| Other wages, % vs no-AI | 33.6 | 33.3 | 29.7 | 23.4 | 14.7 | 42.4 | 43.7 | 41.9 | 37.8 | 31.3 |
| Average wage, % vs no-AI | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.2 | −4.3 | −11.5 | 18.3 | 14.9 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 2.3 |
| Net return to capital, % | 8.3 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 9.0 |
| Capital stock, % above no-AI path | 56.3 | 51.9 | 47.5 | 40.7 | 31.8 | 67.1 | 64.4 | 61.3 | 56.2 | 49.0 |
| GDP gain ÷ cognitive wage-bill loss | 2.79 | 2.36 | 2.06 | 1.66 | 1.22 | 3.92 | 3.44 | 3.11 | 2.67 | 2.15 |
Substantial scenario: charts and table
| January 2030 | ε 3 (paper) | ε 6 (long-run, Moll et al.) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Instant (paper) | 6 months | 12 months | 24 months | 48 months | Instant (paper) | 6 months | 12 months | 24 months | 48 months | |
| GDP, % above no-AI path | 8.3 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 7.5 |
| GDP growth, % a year | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| Labor share, % | 56.1 | 55.9 | 55.7 | 55.3 | 54.8 | 56.5 | 56.4 | 56.2 | 56.0 | 55.6 |
| Cognitive unemployment, % | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Unemployment, all workers, % | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 |
| Cognitive wage, % vs no-AI | −0.3 | −1.6 | −2.4 | −3.7 | −5.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | −0.3 | −1.3 | −2.7 |
| Other wages, % vs no-AI | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 4.9 |
| Average wage, % vs no-AI | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | −0.7 | −2.4 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| Net return to capital, % | 7.0 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 7.3 |
| Capital stock, % above no-AI path | 13.8 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 15.7 | 15.2 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 11.8 |
| GDP gain ÷ cognitive wage-bill loss | 4.78 | 3.93 | 3.31 | 2.55 | 1.81 | 7.55 | 6.38 | 5.50 | 4.35 | 3.15 |
Modest scenario: table
| January 2030 | ε 3 (paper) | ε 6 (long-run, Moll et al.) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Instant (paper) | 6 months | 12 months | 24 months | 48 months | Instant (paper) | 6 months | 12 months | 24 months | 48 months | |
| GDP, % above no-AI path | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| GDP growth, % a year | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Labor share, % | 59.4 | 59.4 | 59.4 | 59.3 | 59.3 | 59.5 | 59.5 | 59.5 | 59.4 | 59.4 |
| Cognitive unemployment, % | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Unemployment, all workers, % | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Cognitive wage, % vs no-AI | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | −0.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Other wages, % vs no-AI | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Average wage, % vs no-AI | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Net return to capital, % | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| Capital stock, % above no-AI path | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| GDP gain ÷ cognitive wage-bill loss | 14.50 | 11.17 | 9.09 | 6.71 | 4.52 | 73.56 | 39.31 | 27.02 | 16.85 | 9.84 |
The gain-to-loss ratio is not meaningful here: the cognitive wage-bill loss is close to zero.
What the pilot shows
- Same GDP, different split (K1, K3, K4). In the extreme scenario, ε = 6 with a 24-month half-life gives GDP 32.9 percent above the no-AI path against the paper’s 32.4. But the cognitive wage falls 17.0 percent instead of 11.5, the average wage gain is 8.1 percent instead of 9.7, and cognitive unemployment is 15.7 percent instead of 17.9: “nearly one in five” becomes about one in six.
- With the paper’s ε and its own build time (K1, K5). At ε = 3 with a 6–12-month half-life, extreme GDP is 28.7–30.8 percent, the average wage gain 1.2–4.8 percent, and the gain is 2.06–2.36 times the cognitive wage-bill loss rather than “almost three times” (2.79). This pairing may double-count the delay, as above.
- The labor share moves less (K2). Across the extreme runs it is 40.8–46.9 percent, and 42.4–46.3 at half-lives of 6–24 months, against the paper’s 45.2.
- Substantial and modest (K6, K7). Substantial GDP ranges from 6.0 to 9.1 percent and cognitive unemployment from 4.2 to 4.6; the average wage falls below its no-AI path once the half-life reaches 24 months at ε = 3. The modest scenario barely moves. The paper already notes that a less elastic capital supply “can push the average wage below its no-AI path” (p. 38).
- Why unemployment falls when capital is slower. The paper’s wage rule makes the cognitive wage sticky relative to the economy-wide wage (Equation 30, p. 19). Slower capital lowers the economy-wide wage, and the cognitive wage follows it down. In the extreme scenario at ε = 3, a 12-month half-life barely changes the cognitive discount (−19.0 to −19.5 log points), lowers the economy-wide wage from +7.0 to −6.1 percent, and cuts cumulative layoffs to 2030 from 6.9 to 5.1 percent of the labor force. Under a wage rule rigid in the level of the cognitive wage (menu item 2), the same lag would be expected to raise unemployment instead. That is untested.
Limits of the pilot
- One change among the eleven choice points, at otherwise fixed paper values; not the joint grid a full version needs.
- Partial adjustment is a simple stand-in for build lags. The half-lives are illustrative, not estimated; the only anchor used is the paper’s “a year or two”.
- The lag applies to all capital, not only compute, and starts with the stock on its no-AI path in January 2024. Within a month, every capital market uses the same short-run schedule, built from last month’s stock.
- The code was written by Claude and has not been reviewed by a person. Claude is made by Anthropic, which publishes the paper.
Comment on the menu
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Code, results and how to reproduce
The pilot changes two functions in Econ-ARK’s independent rebuild of the model (econ-ark/econ-scenarios, commit 87170fa, MIT licence; Zenodo DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22839070). reproduce.sh copies their package, applies the patch, runs the three checks above and the grid, and writes the logs listed here. Files end in .txt so that they open in a browser; drop the suffix before running. Credit for the model rebuild belongs to Econ-ARK; errors in the change are ours.
- capital_adjustment.patch
- reproduce.sh
- run_grid.py
- mechanism_check.py
- dump_series.py
- compare_series.py
- validate_published.py
- frozen_check.py
- LICENSE-econ-ark
- grid_results.json
- run_grid.log
- mechanism_check.log
- check1_switch_off.log
- check2_published.log
- check3_frozen.log
Prepared 29 October 2026. The working record, with every run, is kept in The Unjournal’s review folder for this paper.
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